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Cuban President Fidel Castro has confirmed that he will not be accepting another term as president of the Caribbean island, leaving the path clear for his brother and current interim president Raul to take the reins.

Global Insight Perspective  
Significance The announcement, which was made days before the new national assembly appoints a new government, does not come as a surprise; President Fidel Castro yielded power - albeit “temporarily” - more than 16 months ago after undergoing intestinal surgery.
Implications Castro’s effective resignation has triggered much international diplomatic activity, with representatives of European countries lobbying more vociferously than ever for democratic reforms.
Outlook In the short term it is unlikely that any change will take place in the Caribbean country; it remains to be seen if in the mid-term the regime will adopt gradual reforms or if it will extend the status quo.

Castro Calls it a Day

In an article in the official media Cuban President Fidel Castro has announced that he will not accept another term as president of the Caribbean island. The announcement was made just days before the national assembly meets (next Sunday, 24 February) to appoint a new government. Castro was re-elected as member of parliament for the province of Santiago de Cuba in the national election, which took place on 20 January (see Cuba: 21 January 2008: Election 2008: Cubans Re-Elect Ailing Leader as Member of Parliament and Cuba: 18 January 2008: Election 2008: Cuba to Hold First Parliamentary Poll Since Interim President Took the Helm).

The announcement should come as no surprise, as Castro himself had already stated in early January that he did not intend to accept another term as government head given his delicate health. Although Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who met with the eighty-one-year-old revolutionary leader in mid-January, said that Castro was ready to return to power, the ailing president was quick to say that his health prevented him from fulfilling the role and indicated that he would stand down in the short term (see Cuba: 16 January 2008: Brazil Pledges Energy Investment in Cuba; Two Leaders Meet). In August 2006 Castro underwent intestinal surgery that forced him to put in place constitutional arrangements to hand power to his brother and vice-president Raul Castro. Since that time the younger Castro has been at the helm of the island’s government.

International Community Calls for Reforms

Within hours of the announcement, Spanish and French officials called for changes in Cuba. Western governments are keen to nudge Raul Castro in the direction of pro-democratic reforms. Trinidad Jiménez, Spain’s sub-secretary for Latin America, said that the interim president should adopt a batch of reforms in Cuba now that his older brother will officially no longer be part of the government. Similar comments were made by Jean-Pierre Jouyet, French secretary for European affairs, according to Agence France-Presse (AFP).

Although there is no official reaction from the United States at the time of writing, the current administration has been clear in the past that it will maintain the economic embargo on Cuba until the Caribbean island has embraced democratic values. Most likely the administration of President George W. Bush will insist on this matter and will call for drastic reform in Cuba, and this will be echoed by the conservative community of exiled Cubans that reside in the U.S. state of Florida. However, one must also look at the countries’ relations in the context of the upcoming presidential election. George W. Bush is constitutionally required to step down, and leadership change could open the way for greater engagement with the Cuban regime. However, the three main hopefuls left in the race have been cautious with their statements to date. One would expect a Democratic president to be more open to policy change than a Republican given the influence Cuban exiles have within the latter party, but the Democrats have supported the embargo in the past. Democratic frontrunner Illinois Senator Barack Obama has indicated that he would be prepared to talk to “rogue” world leaders such as Castro, and has also backed more open travel and remittances policies towards the island. However, this does not mean the embargo would disappear in the short term. Much would, of course, depend upon how prepared the new Cuban leader was to reach out. Obama’s rival, New York Senator Hillary Clinton, has been more forthright in backing the embargo until democracy takes root, but she could soften her stance in light of Cuba’s leadership transition. The presumed Republican candidate, Arizona Senator John McCain, has been outspoken of late in criticising the regime’s torture record, something that earned a sharp rebuke from Fidel Castro last week. His stated policies appear close to Clinton’s - the embargo stays until democracy is restored.

No comment has yet been made by Venezuela’s President Hugo Chávez, who has been a key partner of the Castro regime. The South American country provides the Communist regime with key support in terms of preferential oil prices, investment in oil infrastructure in the central region of Cienfuegos, and aid to ease Cuba’s housing deficit. Most likely Chávez will defend the status quo in Cuba and will continue to pour in financial support through the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA).

Outlook and Implications

The fact that Castro has announced that he will not be the official head of state in Cuba in the future does not mean that he will vanish from the political scene. Indeed, he will continue to write in the official media and express, through this means, his opinion on both domestic and international issues. In addition, it is unlikely that Raul Castro would adopt changes in the Caribbean island in the short term. In fact, history has shown that Cuba does not respond well to external demands, and pressure from the international community to change could delay a transition to democracy. Indeed, the Cuban government will be keen to preserve the ideals and social achievements of the Revolution.

In the mid-term Raul Castro, almost certainly Cuba’s next president, could well adopt reforms to attract much-needed foreign investment, but he is playing his cards close to his chest. To attract large-scale investment the younger Castro, who is seen as more pragmatic than his brother, would need to make room for democratic values, conversion into a single currency, and clearer property ownership rights. The other key factor to watch is how the next U.S. president chooses to play the situation. Barack Obama is the most likely of the three hopefuls to introduce a substantial shift. His rivals stress that democracy must come first, dismissing the alternative argument that a more open stance from the United States would spur reform momentum and political change on the island.